Case Study “Copper / China future“

Question: What is the expected development of annual copper consumption in China under scenario

A) 7% growth of GDP, reaching European copper consumption level by 2030
B) Lower growth with reaching ½ North American / European consumption level by 2030

Results: The following graphic shows the results of the dynamic simulation of the global copper flow system under the given scenario. The run of curves of the simulation result and that of effective values fit well together (historical data until 2007). This indicates a good confidence level for the model. See graphic chart...

Case Study “Copper / Impact South East Asia Oyu Tolgoi Mine”

Question: What is the expected relative impact of the Oyu Tolgoi Mine under the scenario of moderate global increase of GDP. The scenario includes the assumption that the world mines according to global consumption and related to their specific potential of stock and capacity expansion.

Results: The dynamic simulation was verified with historic data (until 2007). Under the conditions within the scenario it can be expected only a slight impact on the global development of the copper production rate. See graphic chart...

Case Study “Copper / Impact of Earthquake in Chile on Global Copper Mining”

Question: Assuming a strong earthquake in Chile blocks production during 3 years. One bigger mine is affected.

Results: The dynamic simulation was verified with historic data (until 2007). The total production loss can be estimated by subtraction of the integrated reference and scenario curve.  See graphic chart...

 

The global copper model was developed in collaboration with Hanspeter Bader and Ruth Scheidegger of EAWAG, and TBF + Partner AG.